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Palmeiras U20 vs Sfera U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
Preview
18:00
Sfera U20
Sfera U20
9/12/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 15
76%
Palmeiras U20
model favours
76%14%10%

Palmeiras U20 have scored in 23 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Palmeiras U2076%
×Draw14%
Sfera U2010%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U20
2.76
Sfera U20
0.89

Palmeiras U20 creates 210% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U20
3.96
Sfera U20
1.25

allows per match

Palmeiras U20
0.52
Sfera U20
1.56

finishing

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par
Sfera U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U20 ↓

Sfera U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Palmeiras U20 or draw
90%
Palmeiras U20 or Sfera U20
86%
Draw or Sfera U20
24%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
55%
Sfera U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
94%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
76%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
51%
Sfera U20 1+ goals
59%
Sfera U20 2+ goals
22%
Sfera U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
89%
Sfera U20 (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U20 at home — creates 3.96, concedes 0.52 · 27 matches

Sfera U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U20 attack 3.96 + Sfera U20 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.76

Sfera U20 attack 1.25 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Palmeiras U20 scores more
76%
level
14%
Sfera U20 scores more
10%

Palmeiras U20 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Palmeiras U20 are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (65% and 63% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in only 32% of Sfera U20’s matches
  • 65% of Palmeiras U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 31% of Palmeiras U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Palmeiras U20 and Sfera U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DDWDW
U20
LWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Palmeiras U20 host Sfera U20

September 12, 2026: Palmeiras U20 take on Sfera U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.