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Palmeiras U20 vs Ituano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
Preview
18:00
Ituano U20
Ituano U20
8/11/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 11
69%
Palmeiras U20
model favours
69%16%14%

Palmeiras U20 have scored in 23 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Palmeiras U2069%
×Draw16%
Ituano U2014%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U20
2.71
Ituano U20
1.16

Palmeiras U20 creates 134% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 20 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U20
3.96
Ituano U20
1.80

allows per match

Palmeiras U20
0.52
Ituano U20
1.45

finishing

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par
Ituano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 74Under: 2674%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U20 ↓

Ituano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Palmeiras U20 or draw
86%
Palmeiras U20 or Ituano U20
84%
Draw or Ituano U20
31%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
48%
Ituano U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
93%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
75%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
50%
Ituano U20 1+ goals
69%
Ituano U20 2+ goals
32%
Ituano U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
83%
Ituano U20 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U20 at home — creates 3.96, concedes 0.52 · 27 matches

Ituano U20 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U20 attack 3.96 + Ituano U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.71

Ituano U20 attack 1.80 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Palmeiras U20 scores more
69%
level
16%
Ituano U20 scores more
14%

Palmeiras U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Palmeiras U20 are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • 65% of Palmeiras U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Palmeiras U20 sit 17, Ituano U20 36 in the table
  • 31% of Palmeiras U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 20% of Palmeiras U20’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DDWDW
U20
DDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Palmeiras U20 host Ituano U20

August 11, 2026: Palmeiras U20 take on Ituano U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.