Palmeiras U20 vs Corinthians U20

Brasileiro U20 A·2026

Palmeiras U20

Preview

19:00

Corinthians U20

Date: Jul 16, 2026, 7:00 PM
Tournament: Brasileiro U20 A · Quarter-finals

Big match

51%

Palmeiras U20

model favours

51%21%28%

Palmeiras U20 have scored in 20 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

71%

over 2.5 goals

70%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Palmeiras U2051%

×Draw21%

Corinthians U2028%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palmeiras U20Expected goals in this matchCorinthians U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.55

Palmeiras U20

2.15

Corinthians U20

1.55

Palmeiras U20 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

2.46

creates per match

1.33

1.77

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Palmeiras U20

2.46

Corinthians U20

1.33

allows per match

Palmeiras U20

1.77

Corinthians U20

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U20 ↓

Corinthians U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Palmeiras U20 or draw

72%

Palmeiras U20 or Corinthians U20

79%

Draw or Corinthians U20

49%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+

30%

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals

88%

Palmeiras U20 2+ goals

63%

Palmeiras U20 3+ goals

36%

Corinthians U20 1+ goals

79%

Corinthians U20 2+ goals

46%

Corinthians U20 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)

65%

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U20 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Corinthians U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U20 attack 2.46 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.15

Corinthians U20 attack 1.33 + Palmeiras U20 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Palmeiras U20 scores more

51%

level

21%

Corinthians U20 scores more

28%

Palmeiras U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

When Palmeiras U20 score first, they win 91% of the time
When Corinthians U20 score first, they win 91% of the time
Palmeiras U20 have won 5 of the last 5 meetings
65% of Palmeiras U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
35% of Palmeiras U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
22% of Palmeiras U20’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

DWWLW

U20

WLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff