Palmeiras U17 vs RB Bragantino U17

Palmeiras U17

Preview

20:00

RB Bragantino U17

9/15/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 17

62%

Palmeiras U17

model favours

62%18%20%

Palmeiras U17 score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

75%

over 2.5 goals

70%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Palmeiras U1762%

×Draw18%

RB Bragantino U1720%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palmeiras U17Expected goals in this matchRB Bragantino U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.41

Palmeiras U17

2.56

RB Bragantino U17

1.41

Palmeiras U17 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

3.57

creates per match

1.95

0.86

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Palmeiras U17

3.57

RB Bragantino U17

1.95

allows per match

Palmeiras U17

0.86

RB Bragantino U17

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmeiras U17+0.00on par

RB Bragantino U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U17 ↓

RB Bragantino U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Palmeiras U17 or draw

80%

Palmeiras U17 or RB Bragantino U17

82%

Draw or RB Bragantino U17

38%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+

41%

RB Bragantino U17 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Palmeiras U17 1+ goals

92%

Palmeiras U17 2+ goals

72%

Palmeiras U17 3+ goals

46%

RB Bragantino U17 1+ goals

76%

RB Bragantino U17 2+ goals

41%

RB Bragantino U17 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)

76%

RB Bragantino U17 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U17 at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

RB Bragantino U17 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U17 attack 3.57 + RB Bragantino U17 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.56

RB Bragantino U17 attack 1.95 + Palmeiras U17 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Palmeiras U17 scores more

62%

level

18%

RB Bragantino U17 scores more

20%

Palmeiras U17 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Palmeiras U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

RB Bragantino U17 score first in only 8% of matches
88% of Palmeiras U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Palmeiras U17 have scored in 12 games running
Both sides lean high-scoring (88% and 69% over 2.5)
Both teams score in 81% of Palmeiras U17’s matches
69% of RB Bragantino U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U17

DLLWW

U17

WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff