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Palmeiras U17 vs Juventude U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Palmeiras U17
Palmeiras U17
Preview
19:00
Juventude U17
Juventude U17
8/4/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 10
83%
Palmeiras U17
model favours
83%11%6%

Palmeiras U17 score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

3–0
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Palmeiras U1783%
×Draw11%
Juventude U176%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U17
3.14
Juventude U17
0.78

Palmeiras U17 creates 303% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U17
3.57
Juventude U17
0.71

allows per match

Palmeiras U17
0.86
Juventude U17
2.71

finishing

Palmeiras U17+0.00on par
Juventude U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 74Under: 2674%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U17 ↓

Juventude U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Palmeiras U17 or draw
94%
Palmeiras U17 or Juventude U17
89%
Draw or Juventude U17
17%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+
64%
Juventude U17 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Palmeiras U17 1+ goals
95%
Palmeiras U17 2+ goals
81%
Palmeiras U17 3+ goals
59%
Juventude U17 1+ goals
54%
Juventude U17 2+ goals
18%
Juventude U17 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)
93%
Juventude U17 (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U17 at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Juventude U17 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U17 attack 3.57 + Juventude U17 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 3.14

Juventude U17 attack 0.71 + Palmeiras U17 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Palmeiras U17 scores more
83%
level
11%
Juventude U17 scores more
6%

Palmeiras U17 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Palmeiras U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Juventude U17 score first in only 6% of matches
  • 88% of Palmeiras U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Palmeiras U17 have scored in 12 games running
  • Both teams score in 81% of Palmeiras U17’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
DLLWW
U17
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Palmeiras U17 face Juventude U17 (Brasileiro U17)

Brasileiro U17 returns with Palmeiras U17 hosting Juventude U17. Match starts August 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.