Palermo 5–2 Modena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Modena

L. Vido 79' (pen)

G. Aurelio 59'

V. Verre 56'

E. Soleri 47'

G. Tutino 25'

L. Strizzolo 30', 4'

3/17/2023

Serie B · Round 30Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Palermo46%

×Draw25%

Modena29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchModena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.15

Palermo

1.52

Modena

1.15

Palermo creates 32% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.94

creates per match

1.31

0.99

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Palermo

1.94

Modena

1.31

allows per match

Palermo

0.99

Modena

1.11

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

Palermo+0.39scores more

Modena-0.58scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Modena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

71%

Palermo or Modena

75%

Draw or Modena

54%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

23%

Modena wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

78%

Palermo 2+ goals

45%

Palermo 3+ goals

20%

Modena 1+ goals

68%

Modena 2+ goals

32%

Modena 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

61%

Modena (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.99 · 12 matches

Modena away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.94 + Modena defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.52

Modena attack 1.31 + Palermo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Palermo scores more

46%

level

25%

Modena scores more

29%

Palermo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

N. Valente

Palermo · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

L. Strizzolo↳ L. Tremolada

25'

G. Tutino↳ E. Soleri

30'

L. Strizzolo↳ L. Tremolada

47'

E. Soleri↳ N. Valente

56'

V. Verre↳ N. Valente

59'

G. Aurelio

66'

R. Giovannini← L. Tremolada

66'

E. Duca← M. Armellino

68'

70'

74'

75'

79'

N. Mosti← D. Falcinelli

79'

F. Renzetti← F. Ponsi

79'

L. VidoPenalty

86'

J. Broh← N. Valente

86'

A. Buttaro← I. Nedelcearu

88'

Aleš Matějů

90+2'

Luca Strizzolo

90'

S. De Maio← A. Pergreffi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalermoModena

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots13

7Corners5

14Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots13

8On Target4

5Off Target7

3Blocked2

10Inside Box10

6Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

445Total Passes354

359Accurate Passes270

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5