Palencia CF 4–0 Colegios Diocesanos: Result & Stats

Palencia CF

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Colegios Diocesanos

Chopi 66'

Garban 44', 37'

Guille Donoso 7'

11/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 13Campo 1 de la Amistad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Palencia CF57%

×Draw25%

Colegios Diocesanos18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palencia CFExpected goals in this matchColegios Diocesanos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.80

Palencia CF

1.63

Colegios Diocesanos

0.80

Palencia CF creates 104% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 66 away

1.67

creates per match

0.56

1.04

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Palencia CF

1.67

Colegios Diocesanos

0.56

allows per match

Palencia CF

1.04

Colegios Diocesanos

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palencia CF ↓

Colegios Diocesanos →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Palencia CF or draw

82%

Palencia CF or Colegios Diocesanos

75%

Draw or Colegios Diocesanos

43%

Winning margin

Palencia CF wins by 2+

31%

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+

Team goals

Palencia CF 1+ goals

80%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

48%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

22%

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals

55%

Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals

19%

Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

76%

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Palencia CF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Colegios Diocesanos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Palencia CF attack 1.67 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.56 + Palencia CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Palencia CF scores more

57%

level

25%

Colegios Diocesanos scores more

18%

Palencia CF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Palencia CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Guille Donoso

37'

Garban

44'

Garban

46'

Chopi← Franco

51'

Fernando Martínez← Victor Meneses

51'

Vicente← Jorge Sánchez

54'

Mito Martín← Fernando Sánchez

63'

Mikel Prieto← Garban

63'

Ander Mediavilla← Mario López

65'

Jorge Rodríguez← Aitor Asensio

65'

Sergio Alonso← Josito

66'

Chopi

68'

A. Togola← Guille Donoso

82'

Luís Blázquez← Mario

Palencia

Colegios

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Garban

⚽

▼

Donoso

Manager: Paulino

46'▲Chopi←▼Franco

54'▲Mito Martín←▼Fernando Sánchez

63'▲Mikel Prieto←▼Garban

63'▲Ander Mediavilla←▼Mario López

68'▲A. Togola←▼Guille Donoso

Palencia CF substitutes

ChopiMartínPrietoMediavillaTogola

Manager: Alberto Fernández

51'▲Fernando Martínez←▼Victor Meneses

51'▲Vicente←▼Jorge Sánchez

65'▲Jorge Rodríguez←▼Aitor Asensio

65'▲Sergio Alonso←▼Josito

82'▲Luís Blázquez←▼Mario

Colegios Diocesanos substitutes

MartínezVicenteRodríguezAlonsoBlázquez

Match Recap: Palencia CF vs Colegios Diocesanos

Palencia CF beat Colegios Diocesanos 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 21, 2021.

Goals: Guille Donoso (7'), Garban (37', 44'), Chopi (66').

The match was played at Campo 1 de la Amistad in Palencia.

Palencia CF vs Colegios Diocesanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Palencia CF vs Colegios Diocesanos