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Pakhtakor vs Neftchi — Super League 2026

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
Preview
15:00
Neftchi
Neftchi
10/23/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Pakhtakor Central Stadium
Big match
47%
Pakhtakor
model favours
47%26%27%

Top-of-the-table clash — Pakhtakor 2 vs Neftchi 1

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Pakhtakor47%
×Draw26%
Neftchi27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.50
Neftchi
1.08

Pakhtakor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 61 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
2.20
Neftchi
1.31

allows per match

Pakhtakor
0.85
Neftchi
0.79

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Neftchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
73%
Pakhtakor or Neftchi
74%
Draw or Neftchi
53%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
23%
Neftchi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
78%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
44%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
19%
Neftchi 1+ goals
66%
Neftchi 2+ goals
29%
Neftchi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
63%
Neftchi (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.85 · 98 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.20 + Neftchi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Neftchi attack 1.31 + Pakhtakor defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
47%
level
26%
Neftchi scores more
27%

Pakhtakor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Pakhtakor win just 51% against the top half (vs 76% against the bottom)
  • Neftchi win just 34% against the top half (vs 65% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Pakhtakor
WDDDW
Neftchi
WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pakhtakor face Neftchi (Super League)

Super League returns with Pakhtakor hosting Neftchi. Match starts October 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Pakhtakor host Neftchi at Pakhtakor Central Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.