Pakhtakor 2–1 Metalourg: Result & Stats

Pakhtakor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Metalourg

S. Mukhiddinov 36'

E. Derdiyok 23'

Z. Abdullayev 45+3'

4/2/2021

Super League · Round 4Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Pakhtakor56%

×Draw24%

Metalourg20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PakhtakorExpected goals in this matchMetalourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.94

Pakhtakor

1.74

Metalourg

0.94

Pakhtakor creates 85% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 83 away

2.20

creates per match

1.02

0.85

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Pakhtakor

2.20

Metalourg

1.02

allows per match

Pakhtakor

0.85

Metalourg

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Metalourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw

80%

Pakhtakor or Metalourg

76%

Draw or Metalourg

44%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

31%

Metalourg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

82%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

52%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

25%

Metalourg 1+ goals

61%

Metalourg 2+ goals

24%

Metalourg 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

73%

Metalourg (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.85 · 98 matches

Metalourg away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.20 + Metalourg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.74

Metalourg attack 1.02 + Pakhtakor defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pakhtakor scores more

56%

level

24%

Metalourg scores more

20%

Pakhtakor at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

E. Derdiyok

24'

27'

K. Tadjiev

30'

36'

S. Mukhiddinov

45+3'

Z. Abdullayev

54'

S. Qutiboev

57'

Abror Ismailov← S. Mukhiddinov

57'

I. Yoldoshev← K. Alidjanov

70'

Y. Krimets

71'

Anzur Ismailov← E. Derdiyok

77'

I. Nagaev← Z. Abdullayev

83'

D. Rakhmatullaev← D. Temirov

86'

E. Makeev← I. Toshpulatov

90'

S. Quvvatov

90+4'

D. Ceran

Pakhtakor

Metalourg

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mukhiddin

Turgunboe

⚽

▼

Derdiyok

Ćeran

Rashidov

Manager: P. Huistra

57'▲Abror Ismailov←▼S. Mukhiddinov

57'▲I. Yoldoshev←▼K. Alidjanov

71'▲Anzur Ismailov←▼E. Derdiyok

Pakhtakor substitutes

IsmailovYoldoshevIsmailovSuyunovErkinovIminovTemirov

Manager: D. Abduraimov

77'▲I. Nagaev←▼Z. Abdullayev

83'▲D. Rakhmatullaev←▼D. Temirov

86'▲E. Makeev←▼I. Toshpulatov

Metalourg substitutes

NagaevRakhmatullaevMakeevShipilovTursunbaevAnvarovNarzullaev

Match Recap: Pakhtakor vs Metalourg

Pakhtakor beat Metalourg 2-1 in Super League on April 2, 2021.

Goals: E. Derdiyok (23'), S. Mukhiddinov (36'), Z. Abdullayev (45+3').

The match was played at Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion in Tashkent.

Pakhtakor vs Metalourg — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Pakhtakor vs Metalourg