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Paide vs Flora Tallinn — Meistriliiga 2026

Paide
Paide
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
3/16/2024MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 3Paide linnastaadion kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Paide34%
×Draw23%
Flora Tallinn42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide
1.51
Flora Tallinn
1.70

Flora Tallinn creates 13% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 133 away

creates per match

Paide
2.19
Flora Tallinn
2.39

allows per match

Paide
1.01
Flora Tallinn
0.83

finishing

Paide+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Paide or draw
58%
Paide or Flora Tallinn
77%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
66%

Winning margin

Paide wins by 2+
16%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Paide 1+ goals
78%
Paide 2+ goals
44%
Paide 3+ goals
19%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
82%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
51%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Paide (draw refunded)
45%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.01 · 131 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 2.39, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide attack 2.19 + Flora Tallinn defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.51

Flora Tallinn attack 2.39 + Paide defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paide scores more
34%
level
23%
Flora Tallinn scores more
42%

Flora Tallinn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistriliiga: Paide 2–1 Flora Tallinn

Paide beat Flora Tallinn 2-1 in Meistriliiga on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion kunstmuruväljak in Paide.