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Padova U19 vs Cittadella U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Padova U19
Padova U19
FT
2 – 3
Cittadella U19
Cittadella U19
4/1/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 24Campo Sportivo Senza Frontiere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Padova U1942%
×Draw24%
Cittadella U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova U19
1.65
Cittadella U19
1.47

Padova U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 83 away

creates per match

Padova U19
1.28
Cittadella U19
1.37

allows per match

Padova U19
1.56
Cittadella U19
2.01

finishing

Padova U19+0.00on par
Cittadella U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova U19 ↓

Cittadella U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Padova U19 or draw
66%
Padova U19 or Cittadella U19
76%
Draw or Cittadella U19
58%

Winning margin

Padova U19 wins by 2+
21%
Cittadella U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Padova U19 1+ goals
81%
Padova U19 2+ goals
49%
Padova U19 3+ goals
23%
Cittadella U19 1+ goals
77%
Cittadella U19 2+ goals
43%
Cittadella U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Padova U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Cittadella U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova U19 at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

Cittadella U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.01 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova U19 attack 1.28 + Cittadella U19 defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cittadella U19 attack 1.37 + Padova U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Padova U19 scores more
42%
level
24%
Cittadella U19 scores more
34%

Padova U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Padova U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Padova U19 vs Cittadella U19

Cittadella U19 beat Padova U19 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Senza Frontiere in Abano Terme.