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Padideh Khorasan vs Foolad FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Foolad FC
Foolad FC
9/20/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 4Imam Reza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Padideh Khorasan41%
×Draw32%
Foolad FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padideh Khorasan
1.04
Foolad FC
0.78

Padideh Khorasan creates 33% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 116 away

creates per match

Padideh Khorasan
1.00
Foolad FC
0.84

allows per match

Padideh Khorasan
0.73
Foolad FC
1.07

finishing

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par
Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padideh Khorasan ↓

Foolad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Padideh Khorasan or draw
73%
Padideh Khorasan or Foolad FC
68%
Draw or Foolad FC
59%

Winning margin

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
16%
Foolad FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
65%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
28%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
9%
Foolad FC 1+ goals
54%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
18%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
60%
Foolad FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padideh Khorasan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padideh Khorasan attack 1.00 + Foolad FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Foolad FC attack 0.84 + Padideh Khorasan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Padideh Khorasan scores more
41%
level
32%
Foolad FC scores more
27%

Padideh Khorasan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Padideh Khorasan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Padideh Khorasan 0–1 Foolad FC

Foolad FC beat Padideh Khorasan 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on September 20, 2019.

The match was played at Imam Reza Stadium in Mashhad.