Paderborn U19 3–2 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Paderborn U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Arminia Bielefeld U19

A. de Nittis 90+3'

K. Krumme 61'

G. Ermolaev 37'

J. Schade 64'

N. Korniyenko 39'

2/19/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 12Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Paderborn U1956%

×Draw20%

Arminia Bielefeld U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.38

Paderborn U19

2.20

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.38

Paderborn U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

2.34

creates per match

1.44

1.32

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.34

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.44

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.32

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

76%

Paderborn U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19

80%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19

44%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

34%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

89%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

64%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

37%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

75%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

40%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.20

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

56%

level

20%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

24%

Paderborn U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

39'

46'

50'

58'

61'

64'

76'

T. Keller← Y. Jerrentrup

79'

E. Ibrahimi← A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab

80'

A. de Nittis← Ö. Koz

90+5'

L. Fuchs← Z. Plavčić

90+3'

A. de Nittis

Paderborn

Arminia

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Wiesner

46'▲N. Heim←▼G. Ermolaev

58'▲L. Horey←▼M. Sayin

80'▲A. de Nittis←▼Ö. Koz

90+5'▲L. Fuchs←▼Z. Plavčić

Paderborn U19 substitutes

HeimHoreyNittisFuchsLaarmannSchettkeRebronja

Manager: F. Fulland

50'▲J. Schade←▼C. Dogan

76'▲T. Keller←▼Y. Jerrentrup

79'▲E. Ibrahimi←▼A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

SchadeKellerIbrahimiCiobanuTirpanMihajlovicHahne