Pacific FC 2–2 York United: Result & Stats

Pacific FC

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

York United

5/25/2022

Canadian Championship · Quarter-finalsStarlight Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pacific FC47%

×Draw25%

York United28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pacific FCExpected goals in this matchYork United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.15

Pacific FC

1.58

York United

1.15

Pacific FC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

0.43

1.86

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Pacific FC

1.29

York United

0.43

allows per match

Pacific FC

1.86

York United

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pacific FC+0.00on par

York United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacific FC ↓

York United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pacific FC or draw

72%

Pacific FC or York United

75%

Draw or York United

53%

Winning margin

Pacific FC wins by 2+

24%

York United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pacific FC 1+ goals

79%

Pacific FC 2+ goals

47%

Pacific FC 3+ goals

21%

York United 1+ goals

68%

York United 2+ goals

32%

York United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pacific FC (draw refunded)

63%

York United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacific FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

York United away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacific FC attack 1.29 + York United defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

York United attack 0.43 + Pacific FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pacific FC scores more

47%

level

25%

York United scores more

28%

Pacific FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pacific FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff