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Oyonesa vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Oyonesa
Oyonesa
CANC
00:00
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 30Oion Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Oyonesa48%
×Draw25%
Casalarreina27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oyonesa
1.60
Casalarreina
1.15

Oyonesa creates 39% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 91 away

creates per match

Oyonesa
1.62
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

Oyonesa
0.96
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

Oyonesa+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyonesa ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Oyonesa or draw
73%
Oyonesa or Casalarreina
75%
Draw or Casalarreina
52%

Winning margin

Oyonesa wins by 2+
25%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oyonesa 1+ goals
80%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
47%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
22%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
68%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
32%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oyonesa (draw refunded)
64%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oyonesa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.96 · 111 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oyonesa attack 1.62 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + Oyonesa defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oyonesa scores more
48%
level
25%
Casalarreina scores more
27%

Oyonesa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oyonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oyonesa host Casalarreina

March 22, 2020: Oyonesa take on Casalarreina in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oyonesa host Casalarreina at Oion Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.