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Oyonesa vs Anguiano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Oyonesa
Oyonesa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Anguiano
Anguiano
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 1Oion Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Oyonesa37%
×Draw26%
Anguiano37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oyonesa
1.31
Anguiano
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 91 away

creates per match

Oyonesa
1.62
Anguiano
1.66

allows per match

Oyonesa
0.96
Anguiano
1.01

finishing

Oyonesa+0.00on par
Anguiano+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyonesa ↓

Anguiano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Oyonesa or draw
63%
Oyonesa or Anguiano
74%
Draw or Anguiano
63%

Winning margin

Oyonesa wins by 2+
16%
Anguiano wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Oyonesa 1+ goals
73%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
38%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
14%
Anguiano 1+ goals
73%
Anguiano 2+ goals
38%
Anguiano 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oyonesa (draw refunded)
50%
Anguiano (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oyonesa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.96 · 111 matches

Anguiano away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.01 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oyonesa attack 1.62 + Anguiano defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.31

Anguiano attack 1.66 + Oyonesa defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oyonesa scores more
37%
level
26%
Anguiano scores more
37%

Oyonesa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Oyonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oyonesa vs Anguiano

Oyonesa beat Anguiano 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Oion Arena in Oion.