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Oxford United vs Doncaster — League One 2018

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Doncaster
Doncaster
4/27/2019League OneLeague One · Round 45Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Oxford United50%
×Draw24%
Doncaster26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.65
Doncaster
1.11

Oxford United creates 49% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 108 away

creates per match

Oxford United
1.69
Doncaster
1.13

allows per match

Oxford United
1.10
Doncaster
1.61

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
74%
Oxford United or Doncaster
76%
Draw or Doncaster
50%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
26%
Doncaster wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
81%
Oxford United 2+ goals
49%
Oxford United 3+ goals
23%
Doncaster 1+ goals
67%
Doncaster 2+ goals
30%
Doncaster 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
66%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.69 + Doncaster defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.65

Doncaster attack 1.13 + Oxford United defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oxford United scores more
50%
level
24%
Doncaster scores more
26%

Oxford United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oxford United vs Doncaster

Oxford United and Doncaster drew 2-2 in League One on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Kassam Stadium in Oxford.