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Oxford City vs Worksop Town — League #50 2026

Oxford City
Oxford City
Preview
15:00
Worksop Town
Worksop Town
3/20/2027League #50League #50 · National League North - 40RAW Charging Stadium
57%
Oxford City
model favours
57%21%22%
2–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oxford City57%
×Draw21%
Worksop Town22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford City
2.13
Worksop Town
1.25

Oxford City creates 70% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Oxford City
1.25
Worksop Town
1.00

allows per match

Oxford City
1.50
Worksop Town
3.00

finishing

Oxford City+0.00on par
Worksop Town+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford City ↓

Worksop Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Oxford City or draw
78%
Oxford City or Worksop Town
79%
Draw or Worksop Town
43%

Winning margin

Oxford City wins by 2+
35%
Worksop Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oxford City 1+ goals
88%
Oxford City 2+ goals
63%
Oxford City 3+ goals
35%
Worksop Town 1+ goals
71%
Worksop Town 2+ goals
36%
Worksop Town 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oxford City (draw refunded)
72%
Worksop Town (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford City at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Worksop Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford City attack 1.25 + Worksop Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Worksop Town attack 1.00 + Oxford City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Oxford City scores more
57%
level
21%
Worksop Town scores more
22%

Oxford City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Oxford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
City
WWWLL
Town
WWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oxford City vs Worksop Town — Match Preview

Oxford City face Worksop Town on March 20, 2027 in this League #50 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Oxford City host Worksop Town at RAW Charging Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.