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Oxford City vs South Shields — League #50 2026

Oxford City
Oxford City
Preview
15:00
South Shields
South Shields
10/31/2026League #50League #50 · National League North - 15RAW Charging Stadium
41%
South Shields
model favours
34%25%41%

South Shields score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oxford City34%
×Draw25%
South Shields41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford City
1.35
South Shields
1.50

South Shields creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 28 away

creates per match

Oxford City
1.25
South Shields
1.50

allows per match

Oxford City
1.50
South Shields
1.46

finishing

Oxford City+0.00on par
South Shields+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford City ↓

South Shields →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oxford City or draw
59%
Oxford City or South Shields
75%
Draw or South Shields
66%

Winning margin

Oxford City wins by 2+
15%
South Shields wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Oxford City 1+ goals
74%
Oxford City 2+ goals
39%
Oxford City 3+ goals
15%
South Shields 1+ goals
78%
South Shields 2+ goals
44%
South Shields 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Oxford City (draw refunded)
46%
South Shields (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford City at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

South Shields away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford City attack 1.25 + South Shields defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

South Shields attack 1.50 + Oxford City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oxford City scores more
34%
level
25%
South Shields scores more
41%

South Shields at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "South Shields will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • South Shields win just 33% against the top half (vs 71% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
City
WWWLL
Shields
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oxford City vs South Shields — Match Preview

Oxford City face South Shields on October 31, 2026 in this League #50 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Oxford City host South Shields at RAW Charging Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.