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Oxford City vs Macclesfield — League #50 2026

Oxford City
Oxford City
Preview
14:00
Macclesfield
Macclesfield
10/17/2026League #50League #50 · National League North - 12RAW Charging Stadium
41%
Macclesfield
model favours
35%24%41%

Oxford City and Macclesfield have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oxford City35%
×Draw24%
Macclesfield41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford City
1.46
Macclesfield
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Oxford City
1.25
Macclesfield
1.67

allows per match

Oxford City
1.50
Macclesfield
1.67

finishing

Oxford City+0.00on par
Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford City ↓

Macclesfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Oxford City or draw
59%
Oxford City or Macclesfield
76%
Draw or Macclesfield
65%

Winning margin

Oxford City wins by 2+
16%
Macclesfield wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Oxford City 1+ goals
77%
Oxford City 2+ goals
43%
Oxford City 3+ goals
18%
Macclesfield 1+ goals
79%
Macclesfield 2+ goals
47%
Macclesfield 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Oxford City (draw refunded)
47%
Macclesfield (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford City at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford City attack 1.25 + Macclesfield defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Macclesfield attack 1.67 + Oxford City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oxford City scores more
35%
level
24%
Macclesfield scores more
41%

Macclesfield at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Macclesfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
City
WWWLL
Macclesfield
WDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oxford City vs Macclesfield — Match Preview

Oxford City face Macclesfield on October 17, 2026 in this League #50 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Oxford City host Macclesfield at RAW Charging Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.