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Oxford City vs Chorley — League #50 2026

Oxford City
Oxford City
Preview
14:00
Chorley
Chorley
9/5/2026League #50League #50 · National League North - 7RAW Charging Stadium
45%
Oxford City
model favours
45%24%31%

Chorley score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oxford City45%
×Draw24%
Chorley31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford City
1.69
Chorley
1.38

Oxford City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Oxford City
1.25
Chorley
1.25

allows per match

Oxford City
1.50
Chorley
2.13

finishing

Oxford City+0.00on par
Chorley+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford City ↓

Chorley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Oxford City or draw
69%
Oxford City or Chorley
76%
Draw or Chorley
55%

Winning margin

Oxford City wins by 2+
23%
Chorley wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oxford City 1+ goals
82%
Oxford City 2+ goals
50%
Oxford City 3+ goals
24%
Chorley 1+ goals
75%
Chorley 2+ goals
40%
Chorley 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Oxford City (draw refunded)
59%
Chorley (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford City at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Chorley away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford City attack 1.25 + Chorley defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.69

Chorley attack 1.25 + Oxford City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oxford City scores more
45%
level
24%
Chorley scores more
31%

Oxford City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oxford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Chorley’s matches
  • Oxford City and Chorley have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
City
WWWLL
Chorley
DLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oxford City vs Chorley — Match Preview

Oxford City face Chorley on September 5, 2026 in this League #50 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Oxford City host Chorley at RAW Charging Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.