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Oxford City vs Buxton — League #50 2026

Oxford City
Oxford City
Preview
14:00
Buxton
Buxton
8/29/2026League #50League #50 · National League North - 5RAW Charging Stadium
41%
Buxton
model favours
35%24%41%

Buxton score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oxford City35%
×Draw24%
Buxton41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford City
1.43
Buxton
1.58

Buxton creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Oxford City
1.25
Buxton
1.67

allows per match

Oxford City
1.50
Buxton
1.60

finishing

Oxford City+0.00on par
Buxton+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford City ↓

Buxton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Oxford City or draw
59%
Oxford City or Buxton
76%
Draw or Buxton
65%

Winning margin

Oxford City wins by 2+
16%
Buxton wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Oxford City 1+ goals
76%
Oxford City 2+ goals
42%
Oxford City 3+ goals
17%
Buxton 1+ goals
79%
Buxton 2+ goals
47%
Buxton 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Oxford City (draw refunded)
46%
Buxton (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford City at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Buxton away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford City attack 1.25 + Buxton defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Buxton attack 1.67 + Oxford City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oxford City scores more
35%
level
24%
Buxton scores more
41%

Buxton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Buxton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Oxford City and Buxton have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
City
WWWLL
Buxton
WWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oxford City vs Buxton — Match Preview

Oxford City face Buxton on August 29, 2026 in this League #50 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Oxford City host Buxton at RAW Charging Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.