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Oviedo vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

Oviedo
Oviedo
Preview
15:00
Mallorca
Mallorca
5/23/2027Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 40Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
Big match
41%
Oviedo
model favours
41%30%29%

Even after scoring first, Oviedo win only 31%

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Oviedo41%
×Draw30%
Mallorca29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oviedo
1.15
Mallorca
0.92

Oviedo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 45 away

creates per match

Oviedo
1.39
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Oviedo
0.90
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

Oviedo+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oviedo ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Oviedo or draw
71%
Oviedo or Mallorca
70%
Draw or Mallorca
59%

Winning margin

Oviedo wins by 2+
17%
Mallorca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oviedo 1+ goals
68%
Oviedo 2+ goals
32%
Oviedo 3+ goals
11%
Mallorca 1+ goals
60%
Mallorca 2+ goals
23%
Mallorca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oviedo (draw refunded)
58%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oviedo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 154 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oviedo attack 1.39 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.15

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Oviedo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oviedo scores more
41%
level
30%
Mallorca scores more
29%

Oviedo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oviedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Mallorca win just 11% of their away games
  • Both teams score in only 32% of Oviedo’s matches
  • 30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Oviedo
LLLDL
Mallorca
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oviedo vs Mallorca — Match Preview

Oviedo face Mallorca on May 23, 2027 in this Segunda División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Oviedo host Mallorca at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.