Oviedo 1–1 Mallorca: Result & Stats

Oviedo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mallorca

I. Baldé 9'

J. Lago 52'

11/4/2018

Segunda División · Round 12Jorge Garbajosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Oviedo41%

×Draw30%

Mallorca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OviedoExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.92

Oviedo

1.15

Mallorca

0.92

Oviedo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 45 away

1.39

creates per match

0.93

0.90

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Oviedo

1.39

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Oviedo

0.90

Mallorca

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oviedo+0.00on par

Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oviedo ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Oviedo or draw

71%

Oviedo or Mallorca

70%

Draw or Mallorca

59%

Winning margin

Oviedo wins by 2+

17%

Mallorca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oviedo 1+ goals

68%

Oviedo 2+ goals

32%

Oviedo 3+ goals

11%

Mallorca 1+ goals

60%

Mallorca 2+ goals

23%

Mallorca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oviedo (draw refunded)

58%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oviedo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 154 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oviedo attack 1.39 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.15

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Oviedo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oviedo scores more

41%

level

30%

Mallorca scores more

29%

Oviedo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oviedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Saúl Berjón

Oviedo · F

7.6

Match Events

9'

I. Baldé↳ Tejera

35'

Mossa

43'

Dani Rodriguez

52'

J. Lago↳ Ariday Cabrera

54'

Carlos Castro← Dani Rodríguez

59'

61'

64'

67'

67'

Stoichkov← Abdón Prats

73'

R. Boateng← Saúl Berjón

82'

Sergio Buenacasa← J. Lago

84'

Toché← Tejera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OviedoMallorca

Overview

56%Possession44%

21Total Shots4

12Corners5

13Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots4

3On Target1

13Off Target3

5Blocked0

14Inside Box3

7Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

466Total Passes363

359Accurate Passes245

77%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1