Oviedo 1–1 Levante: Result & Stats

Oviedo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Levante

Sergi Enrich 16'

Iborra 51'

9/5/2022

Segunda División · Round 4Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Oviedo40%

×Draw30%

Levante30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OviedoExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.96

Oviedo

1.15

Levante

0.96

Oviedo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 67 away

1.37

creates per match

1.03

0.89

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Oviedo

1.37

Levante

1.03

allows per match

Oviedo

0.89

Levante

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oviedo+0.00on par

Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oviedo ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Oviedo or draw

70%

Oviedo or Levante

70%

Draw or Levante

60%

Winning margin

Oviedo wins by 2+

17%

Levante wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oviedo 1+ goals

68%

Oviedo 2+ goals

32%

Oviedo 3+ goals

11%

Levante 1+ goals

62%

Levante 2+ goals

25%

Levante 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oviedo (draw refunded)

57%

Levante (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oviedo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

Levante away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.93 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oviedo attack 1.37 + Levante defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Levante attack 1.03 + Oviedo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oviedo scores more

40%

level

30%

Levante scores more

30%

Oviedo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oviedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Sergi Enrich

Oviedo · F

7.7

Match Events

13'

16'

25'

25'

46'

Jorge de Frutos← Cantero

51'

Iborra

62'

Dani Calvo

68'

S. Obeng← Sergi Enrich

68'

Hugo Rama← Marco Sangalli

69'

Wesley Moraes

70'

Soldado← Wesley Moraes

70'

Rober Ibáñez← Jonathan Montiel

71'

Pepelu

71'

Pepelu

80'

Javi Mier← K. Koindredi

81'

Pablo Martínez← Campaña

88'

Abel Bretones← D. Aceves

90+6'

90+8'

90+8'

90+6'

90+3'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OviedoLevante

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots7

3Corners3

14Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots7

5On Target1

7Off Target5

2Blocked1

7Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

370Total Passes392

286Accurate Passes295

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards8

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2