Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ourense CF vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ourense CF
Ourense CF
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
9/8/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ourense CF51%
×Draw26%
Rápido Bouzas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ourense CF
1.55
Rápido Bouzas
0.98

Ourense CF creates 58% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 75 away

creates per match

Ourense CF
1.87
Rápido Bouzas
1.12

allows per match

Ourense CF
0.83
Rápido Bouzas
1.23

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par
Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Rápido Bouzas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw
76%
Ourense CF or Rápido Bouzas
74%
Draw or Rápido Bouzas
49%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+
26%
Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals
79%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
46%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
20%
Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
62%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
26%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)
68%
Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.87 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.55

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Ourense CF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ourense CF scores more
51%
level
26%
Rápido Bouzas scores more
24%

Ourense CF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Ourense CF 5–1 Rápido Bouzas

Ourense CF beat Rápido Bouzas 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.