Oued Ellil 0–0 Jendouba Sport: Result & Stats | Cup

Oued Ellil

FT

0 – 0

Jendouba Sport

1/5/2020

Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oued Ellil25%

×Draw27%

Jendouba Sport48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oued EllilExpected goals in this matchJendouba Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.41

Oued Ellil

0.93

Jendouba Sport

1.41

Jendouba Sport creates 52% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

2.14

0.67

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Oued Ellil

1.00

Jendouba Sport

2.14

allows per match

Oued Ellil

0.67

Jendouba Sport

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oued Ellil+0.00on par

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oued Ellil ↓

Jendouba Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oued Ellil or draw

52%

Oued Ellil or Jendouba Sport

73%

Draw or Jendouba Sport

75%

Winning margin

Oued Ellil wins by 2+

9%

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Oued Ellil 1+ goals

61%

Oued Ellil 2+ goals

24%

Oued Ellil 3+ goals

7%

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals

76%

Jendouba Sport 2+ goals

41%

Jendouba Sport 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)

34%

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oued Ellil at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oued Ellil attack 1.00 + Jendouba Sport defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Jendouba Sport attack 2.14 + Oued Ellil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oued Ellil scores more

25%

level

27%

Jendouba Sport scores more

48%

Jendouba Sport at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff