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Ouakam vs Guédiawaye — Ligue 1 2019

Ouakam
Ouakam
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Guédiawaye
Guédiawaye
12/10/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade de Ngor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ouakam39%
×Draw31%
Guédiawaye30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ouakam
1.05
Guédiawaye
0.89

Ouakam creates 18% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ouakam
1.19
Guédiawaye
1.01

allows per match

Ouakam
0.77
Guédiawaye
0.91

finishing

Ouakam+0.00on par
Guédiawaye+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ouakam ↓

Guédiawaye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ouakam or draw
70%
Ouakam or Guédiawaye
69%
Draw or Guédiawaye
61%

Winning margin

Ouakam wins by 2+
15%
Guédiawaye wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ouakam 1+ goals
65%
Ouakam 2+ goals
28%
Ouakam 3+ goals
9%
Guédiawaye 1+ goals
59%
Guédiawaye 2+ goals
22%
Guédiawaye 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ouakam (draw refunded)
56%
Guédiawaye (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ouakam at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Guédiawaye away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ouakam attack 1.19 + Guédiawaye defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Guédiawaye attack 1.01 + Ouakam defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ouakam scores more
39%
level
31%
Guédiawaye scores more
30%

Ouakam at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ouakam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Ouakam 2–0 Guédiawaye

Ouakam beat Guédiawaye 2-0 in Ligue 1 on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Ngor in Dakar.