Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kamatamare Sanuki — J2 League 2014
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Matsumoto Yamaga43%
Kamatamare Sanuki31%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Matsumoto Yamaga creates 23% more chances
Season form · 10 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Matsumoto Yamaga ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Matsumoto Yamaga at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches
Kamatamare Sanuki away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Matsumoto Yamaga attack 1.40 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39
Kamatamare Sanuki attack 0.75 + Matsumoto Yamaga defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Matsumoto Yamaga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Matsumoto Yamaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
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Tokushima Vortis
Jubilo Iwata
Imabari
Mito Hollyhock
Omiya Ardija
Sagan Tosu
Consadole Sapporo
Vegalta Sendai
Renofa Yamaguchi
Blaublitz Akita
Roasso Kumamoto
Ventforet Kofu
Kataller Toyama
Fujieda MYFC
Oita Trinita
Ehime FC
Yokohama FC
Kagoshima United
Biwako Shiga
Vanraure Hachinohe
Kanazawa
Tochigi SCMatsumoto Yamaga
Tochigi CityKamatamare Sanuki
Kochi United
Osaka
FC Ryukyu
Gainare Tottori
Kitakyushu
Parceiro NaganoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Matsumoto Yamaga host Kamatamare Sanuki on Saturday, 20 September 2014 at 04:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2014/2015 season.
Matsumoto Yamaga 0 – 0 Kamatamare Sanuki
Matsumoto Yamaga and Kamatamare Sanuki drew 0-0 in J2 League on September 20, 2014.
The match was played at Matsumoto Stadium in Matsumoto.