Ottawa Rapid W 5–0 Halifax Tides W: Result & Stats

Ottawa Rapid W

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Halifax Tides W

8/28/2025

Northern Super League · Round 6TD Place Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ottawa Rapid W56%

×Draw24%

Halifax Tides W19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ottawa Rapid WExpected goals in this matchHalifax Tides W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.85

Ottawa Rapid W

1.66

Halifax Tides W

0.85

Ottawa Rapid W creates 95% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

1.84

creates per match

0.71

1.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Ottawa Rapid W

1.84

Halifax Tides W

0.71

allows per match

Ottawa Rapid W

1.00

Halifax Tides W

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ottawa Rapid W+0.00on par

Halifax Tides W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ottawa Rapid W ↓

Halifax Tides W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ottawa Rapid W or draw

81%

Ottawa Rapid W or Halifax Tides W

76%

Draw or Halifax Tides W

44%

Winning margin

Ottawa Rapid W wins by 2+

31%

Halifax Tides W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ottawa Rapid W 1+ goals

81%

Ottawa Rapid W 2+ goals

49%

Ottawa Rapid W 3+ goals

23%

Halifax Tides W 1+ goals

57%

Halifax Tides W 2+ goals

21%

Halifax Tides W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ottawa Rapid W (draw refunded)

75%

Halifax Tides W (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ottawa Rapid W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Halifax Tides W away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ottawa Rapid W attack 1.84 + Halifax Tides W defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.66

Halifax Tides W attack 0.71 + Ottawa Rapid W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ottawa Rapid W scores more

56%

level

24%

Halifax Tides W scores more

19%

Ottawa Rapid W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ottawa Rapid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff