Ottawa Rapid W vs AFC Toronto W — Northern Super League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Ottawa Rapid W36%
AFC Toronto W38%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 19 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ottawa Rapid W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ottawa Rapid W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches
AFC Toronto W away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ottawa Rapid W attack 1.84 + AFC Toronto W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.34
AFC Toronto W attack 1.75 + Ottawa Rapid W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
AFC Toronto W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "AFC Toronto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ottawa Rapid W host AFC Toronto W on Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 17:00. The match is part of the Northern Super League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Ottawa Rapid W vs AFC Toronto W
Ottawa Rapid W beat AFC Toronto W 2-1 in Northern Super League on April 27, 2025.
Goals: Lee Min-A (55'), D. Scott (82'), K. Hunter (90+4').
The match was played at TD Place Stadium in Ottawa, Ontario.