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ÖTSU Hallein vs Neumarkt — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

ÖTSU Hallein
ÖTSU Hallein
FT
3 – 1
Neumarkt
Neumarkt
10/5/2019Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 10Union-Platz Hallein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

ÖTSU Hallein58%
×Draw19%
Neumarkt23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÖTSU Hallein
2.51
Neumarkt
1.57

ÖTSU Hallein creates 60% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 69 away

creates per match

ÖTSU Hallein
2.54
Neumarkt
1.41

allows per match

ÖTSU Hallein
1.73
Neumarkt
2.48

finishing

ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par
Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÖTSU Hallein ↓

Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

ÖTSU Hallein or draw
77%
ÖTSU Hallein or Neumarkt
81%
Draw or Neumarkt
42%

Winning margin

ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+
37%
Neumarkt wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals
92%
ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals
71%
ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals
45%
Neumarkt 1+ goals
79%
Neumarkt 2+ goals
46%
Neumarkt 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)
71%
Neumarkt (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÖTSU Hallein at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Neumarkt away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.48 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÖTSU Hallein attack 2.54 + Neumarkt defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.51

Neumarkt attack 1.41 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ÖTSU Hallein scores more
58%
level
19%
Neumarkt scores more
23%

ÖTSU Hallein at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ÖTSU Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: ÖTSU Hallein 3–1 Neumarkt

ÖTSU Hallein beat Neumarkt 3-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Union-Platz Hallein in Oberalm.