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Otava Katovice vs Mariánské Lázně — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
FT
3 – 1
Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
8/7/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 2Katovice - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Otava Katovice56%
×Draw20%
Mariánské Lázně24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otava Katovice
2.27
Mariánské Lázně
1.43

Otava Katovice creates 59% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

creates per match

Otava Katovice
2.29
Mariánské Lázně
1.49

allows per match

Otava Katovice
1.36
Mariánské Lázně
2.24

finishing

Otava Katovice+0.00on par
Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otava Katovice ↓

Mariánské Lázně →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Otava Katovice or draw
76%
Otava Katovice or Mariánské Lázně
80%
Draw or Mariánské Lázně
44%

Winning margin

Otava Katovice wins by 2+
35%
Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Otava Katovice 1+ goals
90%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
66%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
39%
Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
76%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
42%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
70%
Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otava Katovice at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Mariánské Lázně away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.24 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otava Katovice attack 2.29 + Mariánské Lázně defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.27

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.49 + Otava Katovice defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Otava Katovice scores more
56%
level
20%
Mariánské Lázně scores more
24%

Otava Katovice at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Otava Katovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Otava Katovice vs Mariánské Lázně

Otava Katovice beat Mariánské Lázně 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Katovice - tráva in Katovice.