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Ostrá vs Velké Hamry — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Ostrá
Ostrá
PST
14:30
Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
4/12/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 21Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ostrá40%
×Draw24%
Velké Hamry37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrá
1.58
Velké Hamry
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 53 away

creates per match

Ostrá
1.75
Velké Hamry
1.77

allows per match

Ostrá
1.25
Velké Hamry
1.42

finishing

Ostrá+0.00on par
Velké Hamry+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrá ↓

Velké Hamry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ostrá or draw
63%
Ostrá or Velké Hamry
76%
Draw or Velké Hamry
60%

Winning margin

Ostrá wins by 2+
20%
Velké Hamry wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ostrá 1+ goals
79%
Ostrá 2+ goals
47%
Ostrá 3+ goals
21%
Velké Hamry 1+ goals
78%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
44%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ostrá (draw refunded)
52%
Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrá at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Velké Hamry away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrá attack 1.75 + Velké Hamry defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Velké Hamry attack 1.77 + Ostrá defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ostrá scores more
40%
level
24%
Velké Hamry scores more
37%

Ostrá at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ostrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ostrá face Velké Hamry (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Ostrá hosting Velké Hamry. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ostrá host Velké Hamry at Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.