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Ostrá vs Sparta Kutná Hora — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Ostrá
Ostrá
PST
15:00
Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
6/14/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 30Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ostrá71%
×Draw15%
Sparta Kutná Hora13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrá
2.84
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.16

Ostrá creates 145% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ostrá
1.75
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.07

allows per match

Ostrá
1.25
Sparta Kutná Hora
3.93

finishing

Ostrá+0.00on par
Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrá ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Ostrá or draw
87%
Ostrá or Sparta Kutná Hora
85%
Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora
29%

Winning margin

Ostrá wins by 2+
51%
Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ostrá 1+ goals
94%
Ostrá 2+ goals
77%
Ostrá 3+ goals
53%
Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
69%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
32%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ostrá (draw refunded)
84%
Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrá at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrá attack 1.75 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.84

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Ostrá defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ostrá scores more
71%
level
15%
Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
13%

Ostrá at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ostrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ostrá face Sparta Kutná Hora (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Ostrá hosting Sparta Kutná Hora. Match starts June 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ostrá host Sparta Kutná Hora at Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.