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Ostrá vs Sokol Libiš — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Ostrá
Ostrá
PST
15:00
Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
4/26/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 23Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ostrá64%
×Draw19%
Sokol Libiš18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrá
2.40
Sokol Libiš
1.19

Ostrá creates 102% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ostrá
1.75
Sokol Libiš
1.12

allows per match

Ostrá
1.25
Sokol Libiš
3.04

finishing

Ostrá+0.00on par
Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrá ↓

Sokol Libiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ostrá or draw
82%
Ostrá or Sokol Libiš
81%
Draw or Sokol Libiš
36%

Winning margin

Ostrá wins by 2+
42%
Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ostrá 1+ goals
91%
Ostrá 2+ goals
69%
Ostrá 3+ goals
42%
Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
70%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
33%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ostrá (draw refunded)
78%
Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrá at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrá attack 1.75 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.40

Sokol Libiš attack 1.12 + Ostrá defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ostrá scores more
64%
level
19%
Sokol Libiš scores more
18%

Ostrá at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ostrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ostrá face Sokol Libiš (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Ostrá hosting Sokol Libiš. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ostrá host Sokol Libiš at Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.