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Osters IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Superettan 2026

Osters IF
Osters IF
Preview
17:05
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
7/27/2026SuperettanSuperettan · Round 16Spiris Arena
Big match
46%
Osters IF
model favours
46%24%30%

91% of Osters IF’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Osters IF46%
×Draw24%
Varbergs BoIS FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.67
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.31

Osters IF creates 27% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 57 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.68
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.56

allows per match

Osters IF
1.07
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.67

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
70%
Osters IF or Varbergs BoIS FC
76%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
54%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
24%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
81%
Osters IF 2+ goals
50%
Osters IF 3+ goals
23%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
73%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
38%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
60%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.68 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.56 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Osters IF scores more
46%
level
24%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
30%

Osters IF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Varbergs BoIS FC score first in only 17% of matches
  • Osters IF score first in only 18% of matches
  • Varbergs BoIS FC have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Osters IF fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Osters IF
Balanced
Varbergs BoIS FC
Defensively solid
53%Possession45%
86%Pass accuracy77%
11.3Shots11.7
2.41xGBiggest gap1.52
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Osters IFVarbergs BoIS FC

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Osters IF
2
Draws
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 80%
1–23–42–14–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
IF
WLLLW
FC
WWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Osters IF face Varbergs BoIS FC (Superettan)

Superettan returns with Osters IF hosting Varbergs BoIS FC. Match starts July 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Osters IF host Varbergs BoIS FC at Spiris Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.