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OSS '20 vs Dongen — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OSS '20
OSS '20
CANC
00:00
Dongen
Dongen
5/3/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 31Sportpark De Rusheuvel (Oss)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

OSS '2045%
×Draw23%
Dongen32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OSS '20
1.79
Dongen
1.48

OSS '20 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 47 away

creates per match

OSS '20
1.80
Dongen
1.38

allows per match

OSS '20
1.57
Dongen
1.77

finishing

OSS '20+0.00on par
Dongen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OSS '20 ↓

Dongen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

OSS '20 or draw
68%
OSS '20 or Dongen
77%
Draw or Dongen
55%

Winning margin

OSS '20 wins by 2+
24%
Dongen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

OSS '20 1+ goals
83%
OSS '20 2+ goals
53%
OSS '20 3+ goals
26%
Dongen 1+ goals
77%
Dongen 2+ goals
43%
Dongen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

OSS '20 (draw refunded)
58%
Dongen (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OSS '20 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 65 matches

Dongen away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OSS '20 attack 1.80 + Dongen defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Dongen attack 1.38 + OSS '20 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

OSS '20 scores more
45%
level
23%
Dongen scores more
32%

OSS '20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "OSS '20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: OSS '20 host Dongen

May 3, 2020: OSS '20 take on Dongen in Derde Divisie - Sunday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

OSS '20 host Dongen at Sportpark De Rusheuvel (Oss).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.