OSS '20 vs Blauw Geel — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 65+ matches
OSS '2040%
Blauw Geel37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 65 home / 100 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over63
- Under37
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
OSS '20 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
OSS '20 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 65 matches
Blauw Geel away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
OSS '20 attack 1.80 + Blauw Geel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67
Blauw Geel attack 1.64 + OSS '20 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
OSS '20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "OSS '20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Sparta Nijkerk
HSV ODIN 59
Harkemase Boys
DVS 33 Ermelo
FC Lisse
Hoek
Barendrecht
Ajax Amateurs
Excelsior '31
Almere City II
GOES
Vvsb
SteDoCo
Ter Leede
Dovo
ONS Sneek
VVOGOSS '20
ADO Den Haag II
OFC Oostzaan
Gemert
Dongen
UNA
EVVBlauw Geel
Hsc 21
Hercules
DEM
Groene Ster
HV & CV Quick
Westlandia
ADO '20
FC Lienden
HooglandIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
OSS '20 host Blauw Geel on Sunday, 17 January 2021 at 13:30. The match is part of the Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019/2020 season.
Preview: OSS '20 host Blauw Geel
January 17, 2021: OSS '20 take on Blauw Geel in Derde Divisie - Sunday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
OSS '20 host Blauw Geel at Sportpark De Rusheuvel.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.