Osasuna 1–3 Levante: Result & Stats | La Liga

Osasuna

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Levante

9/27/2020

La Liga · Round 3Estadio El Sadar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Osasuna46%

×Draw25%

Levante29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsasunaExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.16

Osasuna

1.54

Levante

1.16

Osasuna creates 33% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

1.18

1.14

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Osasuna

1.37

Levante

1.18

allows per match

Osasuna

1.14

Levante

1.71

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Osasuna+0.28scores more

Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Osasuna or draw

71%

Osasuna or Levante

75%

Draw or Levante

54%

Winning margin

Osasuna wins by 2+

23%

Levante wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Osasuna 1+ goals

79%

Osasuna 2+ goals

45%

Osasuna 3+ goals

20%

Levante 1+ goals

69%

Levante 2+ goals

32%

Levante 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Osasuna (draw refunded)

62%

Levante (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 31 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna attack 1.37 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Levante attack 1.18 + Osasuna defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Osasuna scores more

46%

level

25%

Levante scores more

29%

Osasuna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Osasuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff