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Osasuna vs Elche — La Liga 2026

Osasuna
Osasuna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Elche
Elche
A. Budimir 7' (pen)
Fidel 19'
11/29/2021La LigaLa Liga · Round 15Estadio El Sadar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Osasuna52%
×Draw26%
Elche22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna
1.54
Elche
0.91

Osasuna creates 69% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 27 away

creates per match

Osasuna
1.32
Elche
0.71

allows per match

Osasuna
1.11
Elche
1.75

finishing

Osasuna+0.29scores more
Elche+0.14scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna ↓

Elche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Osasuna or draw
78%
Osasuna or Elche
74%
Draw or Elche
48%

Winning margin

Osasuna wins by 2+
27%
Elche wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Osasuna 1+ goals
79%
Osasuna 2+ goals
45%
Osasuna 3+ goals
20%
Elche 1+ goals
60%
Elche 2+ goals
23%
Elche 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Osasuna (draw refunded)
70%
Elche (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Elche away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.75 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna attack 1.32 + Elche defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Elche attack 0.71 + Osasuna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Osasuna scores more
52%
level
26%
Elche scores more
22%

Osasuna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Osasuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
Nacho VidalOsasunaOsasuna · D
7.3

Match Events

6'
Fidel
7'
A. BudimirPenalty
19'
Fidel↳ Tete Morente
49'
Iván Marcone
56'
Omar Mascarell
60'
Gumbau← I. Marcone
60'
Josan Ferrández← Fidel
64'
D. Brašanac← Oier
79'
E. Ávila← A. Budimir
79'
Roberto Torres← Kike Barja
85'
Barragán← H. Palacios
86'
Raúl Guti← Lucas Pérez
87'
Manu Sánchez← Rubén García
90+1'
Darko Brašanac

Possession

50%Osasuna

Shots

17Osasuna

Pass accuracy

51%Osasuna

Statistics

OsasunaElche
Overview
50%Possession50%
17Total Shots10
5Corners4
16Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots10
4On Target4
10Off Target4
3Blocked2
9Inside Box8
8Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
386Total Passes393
289Accurate Passes287
75%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Osasuna 1 – 1 Elche

Osasuna and Elche drew 1-1 in La Liga on November 29, 2021.

Goals: A. Budimir (7' pen), Fidel (19').

Osasuna controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio El Sadar in Iruñea.