Osasuna II 4–2 Real Unión: Result & Stats

Osasuna II

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Real Unión

Barbero 47', 7'

Oier Calvillo 36'

Marcos Mendes 20'

Jorge Galán 65', 56' (pen)

9/21/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Osasuna II47%

×Draw27%

Real Unión26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osasuna IIExpected goals in this matchReal Unión

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.95

Osasuna II

1.39

Real Unión

0.95

Osasuna II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

1.63

creates per match

0.96

0.93

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Osasuna II

1.63

Real Unión

0.96

allows per match

Osasuna II

0.93

Real Unión

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Real Unión →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw

74%

Osasuna II or Real Unión

73%

Draw or Real Unión

53%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+

23%

Real Unión wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals

75%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

40%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

16%

Real Unión 1+ goals

61%

Real Unión 2+ goals

25%

Real Unión 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

65%

Real Unión (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.63 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Osasuna II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Osasuna II scores more

47%

level

27%

Real Unión scores more

26%

Osasuna II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

20'

36'

47'

48'

Eneko Eizmendi← Xabi Cárdenas

56'

Jorge GalánPenalty

65'

Jorge Galán

66'

Adrián Aranguren← Marcos Mendes

66'

Niko Kata← Yoel Sola

71'

Mikel Orbegozo← Alain Eizmendi

74'

Aimar Oroz← Javi Martínez

83'

Jorge Herrando← Iker Berruezo

Osasuna

Real

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

Mendes

Manager: Santi Castillejo

66'▲Adrián Aranguren←▼Marcos Mendes

74'▲Aimar Oroz←▼Javi Martínez

83'▲Jorge Herrando←▼Iker Berruezo

Osasuna II substitutes

ArangurenOrozHerrandoLizarragaJiménezMartínezGonzález

Manager: Alberto Iturralde

48'▲Eneko Eizmendi←▼Xabi Cárdenas

66'▲Niko Kata←▼Yoel Sola

71'▲Mikel Orbegozo←▼Alain Eizmendi

Real Unión substitutes

EizmendiKataOrbegozoEtxaburuSenarRecioSequeira