Osasco Audax U20 vs RB Bragantino U20

Osasco Audax U20

Preview

18:00

RB Bragantino U20

9/4/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 14

60%

RB Bragantino U20

model favours

19%21%60%

RB Bragantino U20 have scored in 21 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–2

likely score

61%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Osasco Audax U2019%

×Draw21%

RB Bragantino U2060%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osasco Audax U20Expected goals in this matchRB Bragantino U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

2.09

Osasco Audax U20

1.08

RB Bragantino U20

2.09

RB Bragantino U20 creates 94% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

1.41

creates per match

2.54

1.65

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Osasco Audax U20

1.41

RB Bragantino U20

2.54

allows per match

Osasco Audax U20

1.65

RB Bragantino U20

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osasco Audax U20+0.00on par

RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasco Audax U20 ↓

RB Bragantino U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Osasco Audax U20 or draw

40%

Osasco Audax U20 or RB Bragantino U20

79%

Draw or RB Bragantino U20

81%

Winning margin

Osasco Audax U20 wins by 2+

7%

RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Osasco Audax U20 1+ goals

66%

Osasco Audax U20 2+ goals

29%

Osasco Audax U20 3+ goals

10%

RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals

88%

RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals

62%

RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Osasco Audax U20 (draw refunded)

24%

RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasco Audax U20 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

RB Bragantino U20 away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasco Audax U20 attack 1.41 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.08

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.54 + Osasco Audax U20 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Osasco Audax U20 scores more

19%

level

21%

RB Bragantino U20 scores more

60%

RB Bragantino U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

When RB Bragantino U20 score first, they win 100% of the time
Osasco Audax U20 score first in only 27% of matches
Both teams score in only 18% of Osasco Audax U20’s matches
71% of RB Bragantino U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
33% of RB Bragantino U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
Osasco Audax U20 and RB Bragantino U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

WLWDW

U20

DWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff