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Osasco Audax U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Osasco Audax U20
Osasco Audax U20
Preview
18:00
Gremio Prudente U20
Gremio Prudente U20
8/21/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 13
42%
Gremio Prudente U20
model favours
33%25%42%

Osasco Audax U20 score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Osasco Audax U2033%
×Draw25%
Gremio Prudente U2042%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasco Audax U20
1.32
Gremio Prudente U20
1.51

Gremio Prudente U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Osasco Audax U20
1.41
Gremio Prudente U20
1.38

allows per match

Osasco Audax U20
1.65
Gremio Prudente U20
1.24

finishing

Osasco Audax U20+0.00on par
Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasco Audax U20 ↓

Gremio Prudente U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Osasco Audax U20 or draw
58%
Osasco Audax U20 or Gremio Prudente U20
75%
Draw or Gremio Prudente U20
67%

Winning margin

Osasco Audax U20 wins by 2+
15%
Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Osasco Audax U20 1+ goals
73%
Osasco Audax U20 2+ goals
38%
Osasco Audax U20 3+ goals
15%
Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals
78%
Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals
44%
Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Osasco Audax U20 (draw refunded)
44%
Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasco Audax U20 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Gremio Prudente U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasco Audax U20 attack 1.41 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.38 + Osasco Audax U20 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Osasco Audax U20 scores more
33%
level
25%
Gremio Prudente U20 scores more
42%

Gremio Prudente U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gremio Prudente U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Osasco Audax U20’s matches
  • Osasco Audax U20 sit 9, Gremio Prudente U20 20 in the table
  • Osasco Audax U20 and Gremio Prudente U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WLWDW
U20
DWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Osasco Audax U20 face Gremio Prudente U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Osasco Audax U20 hosting Gremio Prudente U20. Match starts August 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.