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Ortmann vs Spratzern — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Ortmann
Ortmann
FT
3 – 2
Spratzern
Spratzern
9/18/2020Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 3Sportplatz Ortmann BSV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ortmann52%
×Draw23%
Spratzern25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ortmann
1.82
Spratzern
1.19

Ortmann creates 53% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 41 away

creates per match

Ortmann
1.58
Spratzern
1.05

allows per match

Ortmann
1.33
Spratzern
2.07

finishing

Ortmann+0.00on par
Spratzern+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ortmann ↓

Spratzern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ortmann or draw
75%
Ortmann or Spratzern
77%
Draw or Spratzern
48%

Winning margin

Ortmann wins by 2+
29%
Spratzern wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ortmann 1+ goals
84%
Ortmann 2+ goals
54%
Ortmann 3+ goals
27%
Spratzern 1+ goals
70%
Spratzern 2+ goals
33%
Spratzern 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ortmann (draw refunded)
68%
Spratzern (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ortmann at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 85 matches

Spratzern away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.07 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ortmann attack 1.58 + Spratzern defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.82

Spratzern attack 1.05 + Ortmann defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ortmann scores more
52%
level
23%
Spratzern scores more
25%

Ortmann at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ortmann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ortmann vs Spratzern

Ortmann beat Spratzern 3-2 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on September 18, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Ortmann BSV in Neusiedl.