Orsomarso 0–0 Valledupar: Result & Stats

Orsomarso

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Valledupar

3/10/2021

Copa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Orsomarso56%

×Draw25%

Valledupar19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrsomarsoExpected goals in this matchValledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.79

Orsomarso

1.56

Valledupar

0.79

Orsomarso creates 97% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

1.13

creates per match

0.50

1.07

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Orsomarso

1.13

Valledupar

0.50

allows per match

Orsomarso

1.07

Valledupar

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par

Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw

81%

Orsomarso or Valledupar

75%

Draw or Valledupar

44%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+

29%

Valledupar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals

79%

Orsomarso 2+ goals

46%

Orsomarso 3+ goals

21%

Valledupar 1+ goals

55%

Valledupar 2+ goals

19%

Valledupar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)

75%

Valledupar (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Valledupar away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 1.13 + Valledupar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Valledupar attack 0.50 + Orsomarso defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Orsomarso scores more

56%

level

25%

Valledupar scores more

19%

Orsomarso at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Orsomarso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff