Orsomarso 3–0 Huila: Result & Stats | Copa Colombia

Orsomarso

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Huila

3/13/2019

Copa Colombia · Group Stage - 2Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar (Palmira)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Orsomarso40%

×Draw27%

Huila33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrsomarsoExpected goals in this matchHuila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.16

Orsomarso

1.31

Huila

1.16

Orsomarso creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.13

creates per match

1.25

1.07

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Orsomarso

1.13

Huila

1.25

allows per match

Orsomarso

1.07

Huila

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par

Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Huila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw

67%

Orsomarso or Huila

73%

Draw or Huila

60%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+

18%

Huila wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals

73%

Orsomarso 2+ goals

38%

Orsomarso 3+ goals

14%

Huila 1+ goals

69%

Huila 2+ goals

32%

Huila 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)

55%

Huila (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Huila away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 1.13 + Huila defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Huila attack 1.25 + Orsomarso defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Orsomarso scores more

40%

level

27%

Huila scores more

33%

Orsomarso at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Orsomarso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff