Orsomarso 1–2 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats

Orsomarso

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Fortaleza FC

K. Angulo 18'

R. Lára 82'

Juan Pablo Tello 28' (OG)

2/20/2020

Copa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Deportivo Cali (Palmira)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Orsomarso37%

×Draw29%

Fortaleza FC34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrsomarsoExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.06

Orsomarso

1.12

Fortaleza FC

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

1.13

creates per match

1.05

1.07

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Orsomarso

1.13

Fortaleza FC

1.05

allows per match

Orsomarso

1.07

Fortaleza FC

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw

66%

Orsomarso or Fortaleza FC

71%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

63%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+

15%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals

67%

Orsomarso 2+ goals

31%

Orsomarso 3+ goals

10%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

65%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

29%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)

52%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 1.13 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Fortaleza FC attack 1.05 + Orsomarso defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Orsomarso scores more

37%

level

29%

Fortaleza FC scores more

34%

Orsomarso at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Orsomarso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

K. Angulo

20'

O. Acosta← J. Ramírez

28'

Juan Pablo TelloOwn goal

51'

S. Cortes← J. Marsiglia

60'

A. Gary← D. Cuperman

62'

J. Moreno← C. Rojas

68'

C. Salazar← C. Hernández

78'

L. Iriarte← R. Pájaro

82'

R. Lára

Orsomarso

Fortaleza

▼

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: E. Muñoz

20'▲O. Acosta←▼J. Ramírez

51'▲S. Cortes←▼J. Marsiglia

68'▲C. Salazar←▼C. Hernández

Orsomarso substitutes

AcostaCortesSalazarMolinariJiménez

Manager: P. Garabello

60'▲A. Gary←▼D. Cuperman

62'▲J. Moreno←▼C. Rojas

78'▲L. Iriarte←▼R. Pájaro

Fortaleza FC substitutes

GaryMorenoIriarteCastilloPalacios