Orsomarso vs Fortaleza FC — Primera B 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 96+ matches
Orsomarso37%
Fortaleza FC34%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 119 home / 96 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Orsomarso ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Orsomarso at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches
Fortaleza FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.10 · 96 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Orsomarso attack 1.11 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10
Fortaleza FC attack 0.98 + Orsomarso defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Orsomarso at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Orsomarso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Internacional Palmira
Real Cartagena
Quindio
Patriotas
Real Soacha
Jaguares
Cucuta
Envigado
Bogota FC
Union Magdalena
Popayan
Tigres FC
Barranquilla
HuilaOrsomarso
Real Santander
Depor FC
Leones FC
Ind. YumboIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Orsomarso host Fortaleza FC on Saturday, 14 September 2019 at 20:00. The match is part of the Primera B 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Orsomarso vs Fortaleza FC
Orsomarso beat Fortaleza FC 2-0 in Primera B on September 14, 2019.
Goals: J. Enamorado (37'), C. Vásquez (45').
The match was played at Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar (Palmira).