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Orsomarso vs Cortulua — Copa Colombia 2019

Orsomarso
Orsomarso
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cortulua
Cortulua
3/22/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Group Stage - 3Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar (Palmira)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Orsomarso45%
×Draw29%
Cortulua26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso
1.28
Cortulua
0.89

Orsomarso creates 44% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Orsomarso
1.13
Cortulua
0.71

allows per match

Orsomarso
1.07
Cortulua
1.43

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par
Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Cortulua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw
74%
Orsomarso or Cortulua
71%
Draw or Cortulua
55%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+
21%
Cortulua wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals
72%
Orsomarso 2+ goals
37%
Orsomarso 3+ goals
14%
Cortulua 1+ goals
59%
Cortulua 2+ goals
22%
Cortulua 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)
64%
Cortulua (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Cortulua away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 1.13 + Cortulua defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Cortulua attack 0.71 + Orsomarso defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Orsomarso scores more
45%
level
29%
Cortulua scores more
26%

Orsomarso at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Orsomarso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Orsomarso 3–1 Cortulua

Orsomarso beat Cortulua 3-1 in Copa Colombia on March 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar (Palmira).